Shortly before Sen. McCain announced his opposition to the Graham-Cassidy health care plan Friday, a new analysis of the bill by the Brookings Institution estimated that millions of people would lose health coverage under the bill.
According to the report, in the first two years, 2018-2019, about 15 million people would lose health coverage. In 2020 through 2026, that number increases to 21 million people. And at the ten-year mark in 2027 and beyond, 32 million would find themselves without coverage. Brookings says that its estimates are conservative by design and probably understate the negative effects on coverage resulting from insurance market turmoil generated by the legislation.
The Congressional Budget Office has said it does not have enough time to provide an analysis of the coverage effects of Graham-Cassidy before a possible vote by September 30, so independent estimates such as the one released Friday by Brookings could play an important role in both public and expert perception of the bill. Axios notes that Brookings is a liberal think tank, but its estimates have tacked the CBO pretty well.